The French Wine Harvest in 2024 is Expected to be One of the Smallest Vintages in a Century

The French Ministry of Agriculture, Agreste, estimates that the French wine harvest will fall to 39.3 million hectoliters in 2024 – a decrease of 16-18% compared to last year. This prediction places the 2024 vintage among the smallest since World War II, when the industry was struggling to recover.

2024 is projected to be one of the six smallest vintages in the last 100 years, joining recent years like 2017 and 2021 on this unflattering list. The trend is clear – reduced harvests are becoming increasingly frequent.

But why is the yield reduced, and what does it mean for the wine investor? Read more below.

The World’s Largest Wine-Producing Country: No More?

France holds the position as the world’s largest wine producer, but if the predictions of a significantly reduced yield come true, it could be overtaken by Spain.

Many French vineyards have, according to Agreste, been challenged by a humid and cool climate. However, even with a potential second place, France will remain among the largest wine-producing nations. Nevertheless, only a small fraction of French wine production comes from the world’s most coveted wine-producing regions – and here, the scenario is the same: Both Burgundy, Bordeaux, and Champagne are facing significantly reduced yields in 2024.

Burgundy

Burgundy accounts for only 4% of total French production. And Burgundy’s Côte d’Or region – the global stronghold for exclusive wine – has been particularly affected by the major climate challenges of the 2024 vintage. According to Decanter, it is estimated that Burgundy and Beaujolais together will produce 2.12 million hectoliters, which is 25% lower than the 2023 harvest.

Furthermore, quantities in the Loire Valley are estimated to fall by 30%, according to the drink business, due to mildew and coulure. And while the 2023 harvest was particularly favorable, a quarter reduction will be felt by wine lovers around the world. There is no indication that the demand for wine from the world’s leading wine region will diminish in the future.

Bordeaux

This year, 8,000 hectares of vines were uprooted in Bordeaux as part of a government-supported clearing plan, which naturally impacts the 2024 harvest. However, besides the uprooting, Bordeaux has also suffered other setbacks this year, according to The Drink Business. Producers have battled mildew and hailstorms that damaged the vineyards. As a result, yields are expected to fall by 10% to 3.9 million hectoliters, the lowest level since 2017.

Champagne

In Champagne, the story is the same. According to Decanter, the production of AOP* wine in Champagne is expected to fall by 16-19% compared to last year’s yield, dropping to 2.34 million hectoliters. Spring frost has been a problem, but like in Burgundy and Bordeaux, mildew and hailstorms have been the main culprits in Champagne. Despite the significant drop, production will still be higher than the five-year average for the region.

*AOP (Appellation d'Origine Protégée) in Champagne refers to the protected designation of origin, a guarantee of quality and origin for wine production in this region. In Champagne, AOP status ensures that the wine is produced under strict rules designed to preserve the wine’s quality and characteristics.

Where Does This Leave the Wine Investor?

The fact that total French wine production is expected to fall by 16-18% and that production in Burgundy’s Côte d’Or is forecast to be reduced by 25% in the 2024 vintage is undoubtedly a hard blow for both producers and enthusiasts.

With a significantly reduced yield, scarcity becomes an even more pronounced reality in Burgundy. Burgundy and Côte d’Or are home to some of the world’s most exclusive wines, known for their extremely high quality and limited supply – a supply that will now become even smaller.

When wine production declines while global demand remains high, it can create a market imbalance. This situation can increase the value of certain wines, as fewer bottles become available. In the past, this has led to price increases, especially for top wines from areas like Burgundy and Champagne, which are among the favorites for wine investors.

However, it’s important to be aware that this development has a serious backdrop. Although price increases may be possible, the cause is grim – France’s wine industry faces yet another challenging year. For collectors and enthusiasts, this may mean that some of the most sought-after wines will become even harder to obtain.

At RareWine Invest, we closely monitor market trends that impact luxury wines. The situation in Burgundy is a reminder that scarcity can drive prices up, but it also reveals the industry's vulnerability. We are keeping a close eye on the 2024 harvest developments and are ready to advise our investors through both new opportunities and the challenges that may arise.

Are you curious about how climate change is challenging wine producers? Read more below.

2024 Testing People to Their Limits

William Kelley, Editor-in-Chief at Wine Advocate – one of the world’s leading wine publications – has reviewed the 2024 vintage in Burgundy. He describes how the weather has been dominated by rain, with the season’s headline being: Cold and Wet. As a result, many grape clusters have been lost.

He points out that global warming brings challenges, challenges that have severely affected French wine production. 2024 was the year with fewer juices, smaller berries, and therefore lower yields than usual. And with unusually cold and damp weather comes mildew, and according to Kelley, winemakers were "tested to their limits" in 2024. Mildew is not easily combated without compromising other aspects of the vine’s development over the season.

Kelley says that we can therefore expect a vintage in Burgundy with lower yields than in 2021. And the 2021 vintage was historically low. A significantly reduced yield does not necessarily mean low quality – and 2024 could very well be a great vintage: There just won’t be much of it.

Read our article about the French harvest in 2021: The harvest of 2021 Will be a disaster – or will it?

Climate Change Has Taken Root

It is no longer new that climate change has become part of the agenda – even in the world of wine. William Kelley points this out, and the yield figures confirm it. Climate change has caused major problems for many of the world’s wine producers in 2024, and it has happened before.

One of the worst harvest disasters in Burgundy occurred in 2021, when climate change led to severe frost, significantly reducing the yield.

Climate change seems to have taken deep root in the vineyards. And as Kelley also points out, the frequent occurrence of cool and damp weather has created ideal conditions for mildew, millerandage, and coulure. These three factors contribute to the very sparse yield projected for the 2024 vintage.

Mildew: Plasmopara viticola. What is it?

Mildew is often highlighted as a major culprit in wine production. Mildew (Plasmopara viticola) is a destructive fungal disease that attacks vineyards under humid and cool conditions, often found in French wine regions like Bordeaux, Burgundy, and the Loire Valley.

The disease begins with olive-colored yellow spots on the tops of the leaves, with a characteristic white coating of fungal spores forming underneath. These spores spread quickly with rain and humidity, especially during frequent downpours.

Mildew not only attacks the leaves but can also damage the grapes, leading to rot and the loss of berries that fall off before harvest. If the disease is not controlled, it can drastically reduce yields.

Wine growers combat mildew by using fungicides and ensuring good air circulation in the vineyards, while organic growers often face greater challenges, as they are limited in their use of chemical preparations. Strategic spraying based on weather conditions is also crucial to minimize the spread of the fungus.

Coulure: Disruption in Flowering

Coulure is a vineyard disorder that occurs during the flowering of vines, where the flowers do not develop properly into grapes. This typically happens due to unfavorable weather conditions, such as cool or wet weather during the flowering period, disrupting pollination and causing the flowers to fall off or fail to set fruit.

For winegrowers, coulure is a major challenge because it reduces the number of grapes and thus the yield. It can also affect the wine's quality, as uneven ripening can result in grapes of different sizes and ripeness, making wine production more unpredictable and difficult.

Millerandage: Uneven Grapes and Less Juice

Millerandage is a condition in viticulture where grapes develop unevenly. A bunch may contain both fully developed grapes and smaller, seedless ones. This condition typically arises due to unfavorable weather conditions, such as cold or wet periods during flowering. Poor pollination leads to some flowers setting fruit properly while others do not, resulting in variation in the size and ripeness of the grapes.

Millerandage can reduce yields, as the smaller, underdeveloped grapes contribute less juice. Furthermore, the variation in size and ripeness makes harvesting and winemaking more challenging, as the grapes do not ripen uniformly. This can affect the balance and quality of the wine. However, in some cases, millerandage can lead to more concentrated and complex wines, as the smaller grapes often have more intense flavors if handled correctly.